The Importance of Context with Marketing Experiments
By now most marketers are familiar with the process of experimentation, identify a hypothesis, design a test that splits the population across one or more variants and select a winning variation based on a success metric. This “winner” has a heavy responsibility – we’re assuming that it confers the improvement in revenue and conversion that we measured during the experiment.
The experiments that you run have to result in better decisions, and ultimately ROI. Further down we’ll look at a situations where an external validity threat in the form of a separate campaign would have invalidated the results of a traditional A/B test. In addition, I’ll show how we were able to adjust and even exploit this external factor using a predictive optimization approach which resulted in a Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) increase of almost 70%.